Hyderabad: The price of rice has risen over the past year, but for consumers in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the price they see in local markets can be considerably higher than the national average.
Price of rice
According to the Department of Consumer Affairs’ Price Monitoring System, India’s average retail price of rice stood at Rs 45.95 per kg on August 29, compared with Rs 42.25 per kg a year earlier. That works out to an increase of about 8.7 per cent.
The all-India average wholesale price was Rs 4,134.28 per quintal on the same day.
Comparing rates per kg
However, this is an average for the broad category of rice and does not represent the price of individual varieties.
For consumers buying Sona Masuri, a commonly consumed variety in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, current market and retail listings show considerably higher prices. Hyderabad supplier listings include Sona Masuri around Rs 70 per kg, while prices for different varieties and qualities can range from roughly Rs 55 to Rs 80 or more.
Online listings also show substantial variation depending on the brand, quality, processing and pack size. Some Sona Masuri products work out to more than Rs 80 per kg when sold in smaller retail packs.
What is driving rice prices?
The recent increase in the national average comes amid a number of factors affecting the rice market, including production, stocks, demand, transportation and government policy.
The government’s daily price-monitoring system tracks rice as one of its key food commodities and reports retail and wholesale prices across markets.
The current rise therefore cannot be attributed to a single factor — and there is not enough evidence to say that climate change is responsible for the increase.
But climate is becoming an important risk to rice production.
Enter El Niño
The strengthening El Niño is particularly relevant because changes in rainfall patterns can affect agricultural production across Asia.
For India, the southwest monsoon is critical to agriculture, especially in areas where cultivation remains dependent on rainfall. A weak or uneven monsoon does not automatically result in a rice shortage. Irrigation, reservoirs, groundwater, government procurement and existing stocks can provide buffers.
But a prolonged rainfall deficit or extreme weather during critical stages of crop development can affect yields.
Climate can influence prices before a shortage
The connection between climate and food prices is not always immediate.
A weather shock does not necessarily have to destroy a crop before markets respond. If farmers, traders or governments anticipate lower production, their decisions on planting, procurement, stocking and trade can change.
International demand can also respond to expectations of tighter supplies.
In such circumstances, prices can begin moving even before final harvest estimates are available.
At the same time, weather is only one part of the equation. Production costs, transport expenses, demand, government policies, stocks and trade restrictions can all influence the final price paid by consumers.
Is climate behind today’s higher rice prices?
Not conclusively.
The official data show that India’s average retail rice price is about 8.7 per cent higher than a year ago. At the same time, Sona Masuri is currently being sold at roughly Rs 65–Rs 80 per kg or more in some Hyderabad retail and supplier listings.
But these two figures measure different things, and there is no evidence to conclude that the current Sona Masuri price is the result of climate change.
The more accurate conclusion is that climate change and climate variability are emerging risks for rice prices, rather than an established explanation for today’s increase.
For consumers, the more important question may therefore be what happens if a weather shock affects rice production before the next major harvest.
If rainfall deficits persist or extreme weather damages rice-growing regions, the pressure on supplies could become more visible in wholesale and retail markets.
