Hyderabad: As forecasts suggest El Niño may influence weather patterns in 2026, climate experts say the experience of the powerful 2015–16 event offers valuable lessons for governments and communities alike.
What does UN say about El Niño impact?
While El Niño is often associated with drought, the impacts can vary widely, from water shortages and crop losses to floods, disease outbreaks and disruptions to livelihoods.
A 2017 report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), El Niño 2015–2016: Impact Outlook and Policy Implications, says countries often receive seasonal climate warnings months in advance.
However, these forecasts only reduce losses when they are backed by timely planning, public awareness and coordinated action.
El Niño is not just about drought
One of the report’s key messages is that El Niño does not affect every country or even every region within a country in the same way. While some areas experience below-normal rainfall and drought, others may face unusually heavy rain and flooding.
The severity of impacts also depends on local geography, existing water availability, farming practices and preparedness.
The report notes that India’s experience itself shows this complexity. During the strong 1997 El Niño, the country still recorded a near-normal Southwest Monsoon, highlighting that El Niño does not always produce the same outcome.
Early warnings only work when people act on them
According to UNESCAP, forecasting technology has improved significantly, allowing scientists to predict El Niño months before it develops. But accurate forecasts alone cannot prevent disasters.
The report says climate information must be translated into practical action by governments, disaster management agencies, farmers and local communities.
From planning water use to helping farmers
This includes planning water use, preparing health systems, advising farmers on cropping decisions and strengthening flood and drought preparedness.
It cites the devastating Tamil Nadu floods during the 2015 northeast monsoon. Although above-normal rainfall had been forecast through regional climate outlooks, gaps in communicating and acting upon those warnings contributed to widespread damage.
Preparing before disaster strikes is the biggest lesson
The report recommends that climate preparedness should involve far more than weather departments. Agriculture, water resources, fisheries, public health and disaster management agencies all need to work together so seasonal forecasts can guide decisions before impacts occur.
It also calls for stronger communication with farmers and communities, better drought contingency planning, and regular dialogue among scientists, governments and the public.
As climate variability becomes more frequent, the report argues that resilience depends not just on predicting the next El Niño but on ensuring that institutions and communities are prepared well in advance.
