Hyderabad: A warming Pacific Ocean may seem far removed from the price of rice, vegetables or groceries in South India.

But a strengthening El Niño can influence the weather patterns that determine how much food farmers produce, and, eventually, how much consumers pay.

The connection is not automatic.

El Niño does not mean food prices will rise everywhere or that every crop will be affected. But it can increase the risk of production shocks, particularly when rainfall is already uncertain.

From the Pacific to the farm

El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that alters atmospheric circulation around the world. One of its important effects for India is its influence on the southwest monsoon.

Research published by the India Meteorological Department has found that El Niño episodes can negatively influence India’s Southwest Monsoon and rainfall in key months.

That matters because rainfall remains critical for Indian agriculture, particularly for rainfed farms.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) says a developing El Niño in 2026 could weaken the summer monsoon across much of India, putting rainfed crops such as rice and maize under stress during critical stages of their growing season.

Rice is particularly important

Rice offers one of the clearest examples of how the climate-price connection can work.

India is one of the world’s largest rice producers and exporters. A weather shock that reduces production can therefore affect both domestic availability and international markets.

FAO notes that during the 2015 El Niño, India's maize production fell by 4 per cent and rice production by 1 per cent. Production declines in several major rice-producing countries contributed to tighter supplies.

But a weaker harvest does not automatically translate into a similar increase in retail prices. Government stocks, procurement, imports, exports and market interventions can cushion the impact.

What about vegetables?

Vegetables can respond even more quickly to weather disruptions because many are short-duration crops and have limited storage lives.

A spell of excessive heat, drought or heavy rain can reduce yields or damage crops. If arrivals at wholesale markets fall while demand remains steady, prices can rise.

The reverse can also happen. A good harvest can produce a temporary glut and push prices down.

This is why climate-related food inflation is often uneven and temporary for individual crops, rather than a uniform rise across the grocery basket.

Climate is only one piece of the price

Food prices are shaped by far more than rainfall.

FAO’s latest food-price data show that global cereal prices have been influenced by weather-related crop concerns, while rice prices have also been affected by production costs and market demand. In July 2026, the FAO All Rice Price Index remained broadly steady even as the wider cereal price index increased.

FAO’s 2026 Food Outlook also expects global rice production to decline from the record level reached in 2025/26, although supplies are expected to remain relatively high because of stocks.

That distinction is important: a climate risk does not automatically become a food-price crisis.

Why consumers should care

The biggest concern is what happens when several pressures arrive together.

A poor monsoon can reduce crop production. Higher temperatures can increase irrigation and cooling requirements. Extreme rainfall can damage crops and roads. At the same time, higher energy, fertiliser and transport costs can increase the cost of bringing food to markets.

The IPCC has concluded that climate-related shocks to agricultural production can contribute to higher and more volatile food prices, with disproportionate consequences for poorer households.

For South India, therefore, the important question is not whether El Niño will make rice or vegetables expensive.

It is whether a stronger El Niño, combined with local rainfall extremes and existing pressures on agriculture, will produce enough crop losses to tighten supplies.